Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. Heres a bomb to right-center. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Additionally, Heyward had no say in November 2014, when his hometown Atlanta Braves, the club for whom he had foregone a full-ride scholarship to UCLA, traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections How much will he be worth? Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. Higgins over one inning. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. We're asking for your help to make it. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Jason Heyward's Surprising New Strategy for - FanGraphs Baseball All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Potential Dodgers shortstop options after Gavin Lux's ACL Injury What are your Gold Glove predictions for this year? : r/baseball The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). 1 day ago. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. It really had good numbers on the computer. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. I cant wait to see how this turns out. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. Cubs prospect Hayden Wesneski proving he belongs in the big leagues Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. Its not that he cant hit the ball out to all fields, but his career-best homer rate is to the pull side. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. Atlanta Braves Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors - Part 276 Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. Jason Heyward - Heat Maps - Pitch% | FanGraphs Baseball by Retrosheet. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. . I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. Major League Leaderboards 2015 Outfielders Fielding Statistics Im not going to worry about it.. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. Jason Heyward - Graphs - - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. As expected, their value on defense drops over the next ten years, but a curious thing has happened to their offensive numbers simultaneously. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. Jason Heyward is good | The Hardball Times - tht.fangraphs.com 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. He looked like a pitcher.. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted 12 years and 0 . This group also aged incredibly well. . by Handedness. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. FanGraphs Mugs. fangraphs.com 1d. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. 'Weird cat': Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin reveals hilarious opinion of Noah Support FanGraphs. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and that's not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. . Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Dodgers Add Jason Heyward LA signs five-time Gold Glover to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp via Bleacher Report Jason Heyward Cubs Moving On from Heyward Team. Progress report: Chicago Cubs - The San Diego Union-Tribune Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. But for now, we can revel in the fact that Jason Heyward, yeah he does a pretty good Mike Trout impression. UZRs range component agrees. His rookie year was off-the-charts good While Heyward is a solid offensive player, he does get a decent portion of his value from defense, which causes some concern about how Heywards value will sustain itself as he ages. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. Massive crying face emoji. by Retrosheet. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Aggravating as it might be, we dont know the answers to those questions. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, The No. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. News; Wikipedia: . Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. Why Jason Heyward's New $184 Million Contract Is A Steal Just like I wanted to see one in there. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Jason Heyward posts cryptic Instagram message about Cubs future - MSN He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. It happens. Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Given his decent wheels, it seems highly unlikely that Heyward will continue to keep company with players who run like they have grand pianos strapped to their backs. With the exception of ZiPS, the projection systems (and the fans) see Heyward as more of a .270 hitter with a high OBP and 20-homer power in 2012: ZiPS: .255/.360/.427, 17 HR Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. It could have something to do with the. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. The team is confident in . Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. by Handedness, Making Too Much of Too Little Jason Heyward, Effectively Wild Episode 852: 2016 Season Preview Series: Chicago Cubs, Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals, pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. . These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Look at Jason Heyward. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. That search reveals the following players. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Heres a bomb to right. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. by Retrosheet. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. Fantasy Fallout: With Gavin Lux Out, Could A Sleeper Emerge? Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. Some call it a sweeper. Braves news: Surprise candidate emerges for potential rotation spot While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stantons sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. by Retrosheet. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. by Retrosheet. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Composite Dodgers 2023 team prospect rankings ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. Jason Heyward Powers Down | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball ACME Sports | MLB If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. His 2012 projections are strong Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Jason Heyward pitch% heatmaps. He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Heyward hasnt shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to 28.3 percent; the MLB average is 29-30 percent). Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. Donate to FanGraphs. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. The grounders are just about all pulled. Gavin Lux is likely . But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Jason Heyward got more credit for his defense than Mike Trout, by our numbers. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Hows it going to go? Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. To me, that looks light, and as a huge Heyward fan I am doing my best in putting that out there without bias. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. Over the last four years, he hasnt had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but theres so clearly the potential for so much more than that too few people have come away satisfied. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. Perhaps rightfully so. Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. One spring of spring-training data. He went second to home on a single. Mining the News (3/2/23) | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. FanGraphs gives fans, front offices a look at the sport's evolution Red Sox employ loophole to MLB shift ban against Joey Gallo If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Cubs Prospect Notes: Canario's Ranking, Brown's Pitches, Alcntara's